Colorado Green Real Estate

Denver Metro—Number of Homes Sold

Yesterday I presented Denver Metro Real Estate Market Trends for Q2 at the Boulder County Real Estate Investment club. The data is quite sobering. One slide in particular points to a multi-year trend in the market—the overall decline in the number of homes sold year-over-year.

The chart below was compiled by Your Castle Real Estate from Metrolist data showing the number of detached single family homes sold since 2005. The data is plotted by month. The last data point for 2010 is the month of May.

Data for the early part of 2010 showed an increase in homes sold over 2009 up until the expiration of the tax credit. Other data what was not plotted on the chart shows that the month of June 2010 was 3% below the number sold in the same month of 2009. In July, the number drops to 27% below compared to the previous year.

So why have fewer and fewer homes been sold year-over-year? It is easier to explain short term trends when they correlate with other economic information like unemployment. But a decline over a five year period is hard to explain. It is a bit of a mystery. One thing for sure is that it will likely take several years before sales stabilize at or above the numbers for 2005.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder County or anywhere in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Denver Metro Market Snapshot for March 2010

Market data for the month of March was published by MetroList last Wednesday. The data for residential and condos is outlined below. Here are a few key points to consider about the data

Historically speaking, there are not a lot of homes on the market to sell.  This is particularly true under $250K.  If you were thinking about selling your home this spring and it’ll sell for under $250, the market is red-hot.  Homes priced between $250-$350K is healthy for sellers, too.

Buyers are competing vigorously for the homes that are available.  The number of under contract listings is +19% from this time last year, even though inventory is unchanged!  We attribute most of the activity to the tax incentives. 

Some of the volume increase is due to the fact that buyers were very inactive in January and February.  YTD (Year to date) Denver sales volume for DSF is dead-even with 2009.

Many believe interest rates will rise during the course of the year.  If mortgage rates go up 1% (could be more than that), your purchasing power will decline significantly. 

The average DSF price in March ’10 was +9% from March ’09.  This was a mix issue; since there are not many low end homes to sell, we’re selling more Cadillacs and fewer Chevy’s.  Well, at least we’re selling Buicks.

The actual market data is summarized below:

• Inventory was 20,574 listings at the end of Mar 10
  • Compared with prior month, available inventory is up 6%
  • Even with same month, year ago

• Under contract listings were at 5,907 units
  • Up 34% compared with prior month
  • Up 22% compared with Mar 09
• Sales volume (units) totaled 3,602
  • Up 48% compared to last month
  • Up 12% compared to Mar 09
• Year to Date (YTD) Sales volume (units) totaled 8,391 compared to 8,159 units sold YTD 2009, an increase of 3%
• Average sales price was $248,905, even with prior month
  • 7% increase from Mar 09, $232,395 avg price

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder County or anywhere in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Denver Real Estate Market Trends Snapshot Q1 2010

I taught a Denver Real Estate Market Trends class today at Jefferson County Association of Realtors. The class was sponsored by my managing broker at Your Castle Real Estate. We now have 2010 Q1 data and there are a couple of nuggets of good news worth noting.

One is that the average price for all of Denver Metro showed the first increase in the last four years. Another interesting data point is the average price has held steady above 2009 over the past 3 months and even increased above 2008 numbers for the month of March. There was also a slight decrease in inventory for properties priced above $450k.

Overall, inventory still increases dramatically from the lower price segments to the higher price segments. In sum, it is probably still too early to conclusively say we’re past the bottom, but it is definitely looking more encouraging than last quarter.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder County or anywhere in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Denver January/February Real Estate Market Snapshot

The number of homes sold for January ’10 was up +9% compared to January ’09 but February didn’t change much for the same time period. However, prices increased by +11% in February ’10 compared to ’09. Prices increased by +9% in January.  The good news is that home sales in Denver is steady or increasing slightly and not declining like it is in much of the US.

The average price of a home sold—currently $265k—has been gradually increasing over the past year although this is a little bit misleading. When we saw double-digit declines of home prices a few years ago, that was due to selling many small REO homes. Nicer homes were not selling. That change in mix drove most of the price decline. But in today’s market we are now seeing the opposite effect.

DOM (Days on Market) declined in Feb ’09 vs. Feb ’10, from 104 to 92 days.  We had a similar pattern in January.  A decline in DOM usually foreshadows a market recovery.  This is great news for the long term health of our market.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder or anywhere in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Home Star: A Federal Program To Help Create Jobs By Promoting Residential Energy Efficient Upgrades

The Home Star program is well on its way to becoming official legislation. An outgrowth of Vice President Biden’s Retrofit America program announced last October, the Home Star program is rapidly gaining momentum. The program is designed to provide incentives to homeowners to make energy efficient upgrades in their home. The program will be implemented on the state and local levels.

Homeowners can choose from two types of incentives:

The Silver Star program is a lower cost approach for energy saving measures that are relatively easy to implement. This would cover such things as air sealing, improved insulation, duct sealing, replace of doors and windows in addition to furnaces, air conditioners and appliances. The program aims to use existing standards for qualifying products to a level sufficient to stimulate consumer interest and demand for energy efficient materials and mechanical systems.

The Gold Star program starts with a comprehensive energy audit followed with a plan to implement energy saving measures to provide the greatest total return. This program will utilize the latest in building science to achieve superior energy efficient performance. The key to this approach is that it is based on performance rather than a specific product or upgrade. The intent is to create the opportunity for free market forces to drive the best technology solutions that achieve the best results.

Details of the program including the administrative and quality assurance processes are still being worked out. Home Star is designed to be market driven with the hopes of stimulating economic development nationwide. The program expects to jumpstart a new energy efficient upgrade industry with the creation of over 150,000 jobs over the next two years.

In addition to creating new jobs, Home Star aims to help reduce energy waste and greenhouse gas emissions in homes that have been upgraded by 20% to 40%. Homeowners will benefit from healthier, more comfortable homes and lower utility bills.

To learn more about Home Star visit the Home Star Program website page. You can also contact me at the links below. I would be happy to discuss the program with you and explore how you may benefit from energy efficient upgrades in your home.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder or anywhere else in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Residential Green Housing Market Poised for Rapid Growth

The chart below is out of a presentation I’ve given about growing opportunities in the Green Housing Market. The data is from McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics report published in 2009. On the upside, the market is predicted to grow to as much as $140B over the next three years. The data predicts green homes will comprise as much as 20% of new residential construction by 2013.

Although we are still at the early stage of the market, every Realtor should recognize that energy efficient green housing construction is not a fad, it is a solid market trend that is rapidly growing.

Unfortunately, there just isn’t very much data out there to work with. This is typical of any early stage technology adoption cycle. It would be helpful to have market data by region and by price point. This will come as more MLS systems collect and report green housing data.

Even still, there is mounting evidence that we may be moving even faster away from the early adoption phase toward mass market uptake. With the programs coming out of Washington aiming to jumpstart an energy efficient upgrade market, it is just a matter of time before green becomes the norm.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder or anywhere else in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

Previous Post: Denver Metro Real Estate Market Trends Summary

Denver Metro Real Estate Market Trend Summary

I am now teaching Denver real estate market trends classes on a regular basis. Your Castle Real Estate, my managing broker, sponsors the classes. Your Castle produced a custom software package to analyze market data from Metrolist. The information is then formatted and presented in the trends class presentation where agents can earn 2 CE credits for attending.

In yesterday’s class, there was a lot of emphasis and discussion about the market activity by price point. For anyone working with investors or with buyers seeking to purchase homes priced under $150K, it’s no secret that properties are few and far between. In fact, anything priced below $85k is usually gone within a day or two with sellers consistently calling for highest and best. There is less than one month’s inventory in that price segment. Based on my experience and the feedback of the group prices are frequently bid up above the asking price.

At the other end of the spectrum it is a completely different story. For homes priced above $460 there is about 20 months of inventory and prices are falling. The middle range just above and below the median price range has about 4 months of inventory—closer to 3 months on the low part of the segment and closer to 5 on the higher part of the segment.

As an example of how this information can help both buyers and sellers make informed decisions, properties on the low end going quickly so buyers need to act fast. They should expect to pay list price or higher. In the middle range, both buyers and sellers can expect activity to hold steady around the market value. Again, the lower priced homes are going faster and with fewer discounts than the higher priced homes.

In the upper price segments, there is a glut of excess inventory that is driving prices down and days on market up. There are signs that prices are still falling in this segment so sellers that need to sell should consider all reasonable offers or risk selling for less tomorrow.

Trade-up buyers are in luck, especially those with home in the lower price segments. Their existing homes will likely sell fast at or near market price without too much compromise. They can then leverage that money to buy into the higher price range where there are lots of bargains to be had with plenty of room for negotiation.

Please contact me if you would like to know more about Denver Real Estate Market Trends. I am teaching classes for both industry professionals and consumers. I would be happy to send you a schedule of upcoming classes.

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If you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in Boulder or anywhere else in Denver Metro please call me. I can help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Corrected for Inflation, US Home Prices Did Not Change For Nearly 100 Years Before the Mid 90’s

The Shiller index is a model for tracking the price of homes. The index uses a proprietary method for evaluating repeat sales to track national home price trends over time.

The chart below shows the Schiller national benchmark indexed to 100 in the year 1890. Denver is indexed to match the US in 1996. The chart should not be viewed as an absolute. Instead, it is a relative indication of price trends with time nationwide.

The data is corrected for inflation. It is very interesting to note that except for the dropout during the great depression, the average price of homes did not change significantly in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. Then in the mid 1990’s prices started to take off when money was cheap and easy to get.

Fast forward a few years and here we are. What goes up must come down—markets must normalize eventually. Denver’s price run up was less extreme than the US average by nearly 20%. Even still, judging from the chart and the general trend across time there is still a ways to go before the market levels off again. This is a great example of the old adage “a picture is worth a thousand words.”

Data Source: Your Castle Real Estate, MetroList, Robert Schiller, Bureau of Labor Statistics

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If you or someone you know are interested in buying or selling a home in Denver Metro or Boulder County please call me. I am more than happy to help you learn more about the area, and I can assist with all types of real estate transactions. I am also a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient homes and environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

Call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

Denver Colorado December Real Estate Market Statistics*: Are We Bouncing Along The Bottom?

The downward trend in sales activity noted last month continues, with some exception, into the New Year. But the data doesn’t seem to follow a very logical pattern. Single family home sales and under contract are way off compared to a year ago.

It is interesting to note, however, that while available inventory has dropped and sales are off compared to the previous month, the total number of units sold actually increased by 10% compared to December 2008. Year to date unit sales are also way down.

So what would explain the spike in demand for December? My guess is that it is related to the extension of the tax credit. Sales for the year are still off but prices are rising which is to be expected with an increase in demand. The convolution of tax credits and a quivering economy tells me we may be bouncing along the bottom of the market.

Single Family Residential Market Activity:

• Available inventory was at 12,263 active listings, down 10% compared to prior month
  • This represents a 18% decrease from same month year ago
• Under contract listings decreased 13% to 2,371 from prior month, and were down 11% compared to Dec 08
• Sales were down 15% from month ago to 2,328 units sold
  • Compared with Dec 08, units sold increased 10%
• YTD sales (units) were down 13%
  • 37,988 units sold YTD 08 vs 33,114 units sold YTD 09

• Average sales price was $281,756
  • Up 6% compared with Nov 09, $ $265,498 avg price
  • Up 17% versus Dec 08, $270,261 avg price
• Median sales price was $221,000, up 1% versus prior month, and up 13% from Dec 08

What are your thoughts about the market? Are we bouncing along the bottom? Are you seeing any signs of recovery in your area?

*Data Courtesy of Metrolist

If you or someone you know is interested in learning more about Colorado eco-friendly homes, I can help. I am a Certified EcoBroker specializing in energy-efficient, environmental practices in real estate across the Front Range.

If you’re considering relocating to Denver Metro or Boulder County, I’d love to help you find your new home. Please feel free to call me at 720-771-5594 or visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

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Consumers Care About Health and the Environment: Green Homes is a Solid Market Trend.

In my last post I covered some of the basic green home market data from McGraw Hill Construction. One of the key points is that the data is all grouped together. In order to be able to extract any information suitable to influence strategic decisions, it must be segmented by factors like price range, geographical region, green features, etc. I think we are going to have to wait a while to obtain data with that type of granularity, but we can still use the information to help shape our general business direction. One thing is for sure, no matter how you slice it, the market outlook for green real estate going forward looks very promising.

In this Part II I am going to list some of the more consumer related information supporting the green home market.

• When asked to list their top 12 influences in buying a home, consumers responding to a National Association of Home Builders survey last year put energy efficiency at No. 2 , behind quality of living space. Five years ago, energy didn't even make the same survey. (The Huntington Post, February 2009)

• According to the National Association of the Remodeling Industry survey, 46 percent of American homeowners claim they would be eager to incorporate green principles into their homes, especially if it would save them money. Experts estimate one can generally save 20 to 30 percent on energy costs with $4,000 to $8,000 worth of improvements.

• Americans Ready to Spend More Green on the Home 48 percent of homeowners would spend $2,500 or more on greening up a home for resale according to the Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate “Living Green” Consumer Survey. The findings are the result of the Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Living Green Consumer Survey. (Lawn & Landscape Magazine, Nov. 7, 2008)

• A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors found that nine out of ten realtors said their clients were interested in energy-efficient features of green homes and the potential cost savings of such features. An overwhelming 90 percent agreed there will be even more interest in green building practices a year from now. (St. Charles Journal, September, 2008)

• According to a 2007 National Association of Home Builders survey, 63 percent of buyers are motivated by the lower operating and maintenance costs that come with energy and resource-efficient homes. (Environment News Service March 2007)

• According to the National Association of Home Builders, when 800 registered voters were given a list of motives for either purchasing a new green home or remodeling their current home to make it greener, nearly two-thirds (64%) identified “reduced energy costs” as an important factor, followed by “because it would be healthier,” and it’s “the right thing to do for the environment.” (www.nbnnews.com, Nov. 2007)

Back to the economic picture, here is one piece of information supporting the increased value of green homes compared to other homes that are not green:

• While the average U.S. home lost 5.7% of its value in 2007, eco-friendly homes have held their value, even appreciating in price. Come sale time, a green property typically appraises for 10% to 15% higher than comparable conventional homes according to Jim Amorin, vice president for the Appraisal Institute, a professional trade organization. (Smart Money, January 2008)

Again, the data is scattered all around from different sources and at different times. I am hoping to update my information sometime soon. I'll post another blog of the finding when it's done.

Here in Boulder Colorado and also in the Denver Metro region there is a growing sentiment toward green homes. I believe we are going to start to see similar trends in other parts of the country in the near future.

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